Views from the hemispheric South, on the struggle of workers and the poor, from around the world, with a very few pieces I wrote myself.
Egypt: After the Muslim Brotherhood's victory, the Army guarantees its own power
[From the Fracción Trotskista, ft-ci.org – Unofficial translation]
Egypt
After the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Army guarantees its own power
By PTS, Argentina
Thursday, June 28, 2012
By Claudia Cinatti
After weeks of growing tension, mobilizations and uncertainty, the military junta officially declared Mohamed Morsi (Freedom and Justice Party, political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood) winner of the second round of the Presidential elections in Egypt with 52% of the votes, against somewhat more than 48% obtained by Ahmed Shafik, most recent Prime Minister of the Mubarak regime, endorsed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Although the imperialist press is trying to present the transfer of the government from the military to a civilian President-elect as a victory of the “democratic process,” the truth is that the electoral victory granted to the Muslim Brotherhood is a result of a negotiation between that Islamist organization and the Army, that will continue to play the role of an arbiter of power and a guarantee of domestic stability and of the state’s commitments to imperialism and its regional allies.
Before recognizing Morsi, the Armed Forces advanced to turn the balance of power in his favor. First, the Constitutional Court dissolved Parliament, where the two Islamist parties, the (moderate) Muslim Brotherhood and the (Salafist) Al Nour Party, had a 75% majority. After the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces issued a decree by which the Army retains its veto power over the future Constitution, reserves for itself the management of the military budget, that includes not only the 1.3 billion dollars of annual assistance from the US, but also the management of enterprises that represent 30% to 40% of the GDP, as well as naming its chiefs and the Minister of Defense and being the only institution of the state that can declare war, which again ensures that Egypt will maintain the regional status quo with the State of Israel.
Morsi resigned from the Mulsim Brotherhood and promised to include other forces in his government; he even announced the appointment of a Christian woman among his Vice Presidents, to ward off the specter that he could embody a radical Islamist government, and to strengthen the idea of a “national unity” government. However, the key was not his overtures, but his policy of accepting negotiating the terms of his Presidency with the Armed Forces, both domestically and in foreign policy.
The end of the revolutionary process?
At first glance, the arrival of the Muslim Brotherhood in power, in the most important and influential country in the Arab world, a guarantor of the peace treaty with the Zionist state, could seem to be a nightmare for the interests of the United States in the Middle East, among other things, regional stability and free passage through the Suez Canal. However, the outcome of the election brought tranquility to imperialism and its allies, including the State of Israel. The Obama administration was concerned that the Army would go too far from the balance of power and that a possible victory by Shafik would transform the mobilizations in Tahrir Square into a new act of the revolutionary process. Recognition of Morsi’s victory relaxed the situation and helped dismantle the mobilization against the military junta. Far from having a radical fundamentalist program, the Muslim Brotherhood is a moderate organization of the Egyptian bourgeoisie, in favor of neo-liberal policies; for that reason, its victory aroused the enthusiasm of the markets, that greeted the new President with a record increase of almost 8%, after having suffered losses in the millions.
The policy of Morsi and the Army is to give indications of stability, in order to define the agreement with the IMF for a pending loan of 3.2 billion dollars and to create a business climate that will attract investors from the US, Europe and the Gulf States. In foreign policy, the Muslim Brotherhood is for maintaining good relations with the United States and respecting the peace treaty with Israel, although it is for loosening the blockade against the Palestinian people that the Egyptian Army had been guaranteeing on the border with the Gaza Strip.
The “transition” towards a post-Mubarak regime in Egypt appears to be taking the road of the so-called “Turkish model,” where moderate Islam coexists with the Armed Forces, that are the real pillar of the state and the regime. As has been shown since Mubarak’s fall, the Muslim Brotherhood has no interest in going to an open confrontation with the Armed Forces and is using the mobilization as a basis for maneuvers to improve its position in the negotiations with the military junta.
It is still too soon to state that the presidential elections have finished consolidating the diversion of the revolutionary process. The workers, the jobless youths, and the Egyptian urban poor, as part of the “Arab Spring,” rose up against the dictatorial, pro-imperialist Mubarak regime, to put an end to political and social oppression that permitted the imposition of conditions of exploitation and poverty, aggravated by the consequences of the international economic crisis. Little more than a year and a half after the fall of Mubarak, none of the fundamental demands of the Egyptian masses have been met. The Muslim Brotherhood will have to govern in a critical economic situation, marked by the fall of the international reserves, the need to cut subsidies for basic goods, like energy, while at least 40% of the population survives on less than two dollars a day. With the illusions in the “democratic transition” worn away, which was expressed in low participation in the elections, these social and political contradictions could accelerate the experience with the “Islamic government” and reopen the Egyptian revolutionary process, the most profound process of the Arab Spring.
June 28, 2012
Egypt
After the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Army guarantees its own power
By PTS, Argentina
Thursday, June 28, 2012
By Claudia Cinatti
After weeks of growing tension, mobilizations and uncertainty, the military junta officially declared Mohamed Morsi (Freedom and Justice Party, political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood) winner of the second round of the Presidential elections in Egypt with 52% of the votes, against somewhat more than 48% obtained by Ahmed Shafik, most recent Prime Minister of the Mubarak regime, endorsed by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Although the imperialist press is trying to present the transfer of the government from the military to a civilian President-elect as a victory of the “democratic process,” the truth is that the electoral victory granted to the Muslim Brotherhood is a result of a negotiation between that Islamist organization and the Army, that will continue to play the role of an arbiter of power and a guarantee of domestic stability and of the state’s commitments to imperialism and its regional allies.
Before recognizing Morsi, the Armed Forces advanced to turn the balance of power in his favor. First, the Constitutional Court dissolved Parliament, where the two Islamist parties, the (moderate) Muslim Brotherhood and the (Salafist) Al Nour Party, had a 75% majority. After the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces issued a decree by which the Army retains its veto power over the future Constitution, reserves for itself the management of the military budget, that includes not only the 1.3 billion dollars of annual assistance from the US, but also the management of enterprises that represent 30% to 40% of the GDP, as well as naming its chiefs and the Minister of Defense and being the only institution of the state that can declare war, which again ensures that Egypt will maintain the regional status quo with the State of Israel.
Morsi resigned from the Mulsim Brotherhood and promised to include other forces in his government; he even announced the appointment of a Christian woman among his Vice Presidents, to ward off the specter that he could embody a radical Islamist government, and to strengthen the idea of a “national unity” government. However, the key was not his overtures, but his policy of accepting negotiating the terms of his Presidency with the Armed Forces, both domestically and in foreign policy.
The end of the revolutionary process?
At first glance, the arrival of the Muslim Brotherhood in power, in the most important and influential country in the Arab world, a guarantor of the peace treaty with the Zionist state, could seem to be a nightmare for the interests of the United States in the Middle East, among other things, regional stability and free passage through the Suez Canal. However, the outcome of the election brought tranquility to imperialism and its allies, including the State of Israel. The Obama administration was concerned that the Army would go too far from the balance of power and that a possible victory by Shafik would transform the mobilizations in Tahrir Square into a new act of the revolutionary process. Recognition of Morsi’s victory relaxed the situation and helped dismantle the mobilization against the military junta. Far from having a radical fundamentalist program, the Muslim Brotherhood is a moderate organization of the Egyptian bourgeoisie, in favor of neo-liberal policies; for that reason, its victory aroused the enthusiasm of the markets, that greeted the new President with a record increase of almost 8%, after having suffered losses in the millions.
The policy of Morsi and the Army is to give indications of stability, in order to define the agreement with the IMF for a pending loan of 3.2 billion dollars and to create a business climate that will attract investors from the US, Europe and the Gulf States. In foreign policy, the Muslim Brotherhood is for maintaining good relations with the United States and respecting the peace treaty with Israel, although it is for loosening the blockade against the Palestinian people that the Egyptian Army had been guaranteeing on the border with the Gaza Strip.
The “transition” towards a post-Mubarak regime in Egypt appears to be taking the road of the so-called “Turkish model,” where moderate Islam coexists with the Armed Forces, that are the real pillar of the state and the regime. As has been shown since Mubarak’s fall, the Muslim Brotherhood has no interest in going to an open confrontation with the Armed Forces and is using the mobilization as a basis for maneuvers to improve its position in the negotiations with the military junta.
It is still too soon to state that the presidential elections have finished consolidating the diversion of the revolutionary process. The workers, the jobless youths, and the Egyptian urban poor, as part of the “Arab Spring,” rose up against the dictatorial, pro-imperialist Mubarak regime, to put an end to political and social oppression that permitted the imposition of conditions of exploitation and poverty, aggravated by the consequences of the international economic crisis. Little more than a year and a half after the fall of Mubarak, none of the fundamental demands of the Egyptian masses have been met. The Muslim Brotherhood will have to govern in a critical economic situation, marked by the fall of the international reserves, the need to cut subsidies for basic goods, like energy, while at least 40% of the population survives on less than two dollars a day. With the illusions in the “democratic transition” worn away, which was expressed in low participation in the elections, these social and political contradictions could accelerate the experience with the “Islamic government” and reopen the Egyptian revolutionary process, the most profound process of the Arab Spring.
June 28, 2012
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